Capcom recently posted sales projections for a handful of its forthcoming titles, estimating a global total of 1.5 million sales for Dragon’s Dogma.
Some were a little shocked by this, given that just a couple of months ago Dragon’s Dogma producer Hideaki Itsuno reportedly said he thought it could sell 10 million.
But he didn’t. He said he wanted it to. As far as actual expectations go, he was confident of Dragon’s Dogma selling over 1 million in Japan, which would probably amount to about 2 million worldwide.
So it’s not that big a drop. Arguably not really a drop at all.
But it’s still too high.
For Dragon’s Dogma to sell as much as 1.5 million worldwide it would need at least one of the following two things:
a) For there to be a buzz about it.
b) For it to be really good.
It has neither.
If you’re a hardcore game, in particular if you’re a Capcom fan, and you spend a lot of time on the internet then you might be under the impression that Dragon’s Dogma is a pretty big deal. But the rest of the world doesn’t think so.
Running a quick comparison between Dragon’s Dogma, Dark Souls and Kingdoms Of Amalur on Google Insights shows that it’s getting searched for way less than either of those two comparable titles.
A lack of pre-release buzz needn’t be the end of the world, though. Good games can come out of nowhere, selling well on the back of positive reviews and strong word-of-mouth.
But Dragon’s Dogma’s not going to get that either.
It’s not going to review as well as either Dark Souls or Kingdoms Of Amalur – I gave it a 6/10 in X360 – and simply isn’t good enough to generate much word of mouth
Dark Souls has managed 1.5 million global sales so far and Kingdoms Of Amalur: Reckoning 1.1 million. So I’d be surprised if Dragon’s Dogma manages 1 million worldwide, never mind in Japan.
Even if the Resident Evil 6 demo boosts its sales significantly, expect to see the pre-owned section of your local game emporium bursting with copies of Dragon’s Dogma within a week or two of release.